Thursday, September 4, 2008

To Believe or not to Believe, That is the question

OK enough talk about The Weather Channel being the "Hurricane Authority". They are no more the Authority than I am. In fact I have more experience so if I were you, I would listen to me before I would listen to them. Here is how they work.

They start out making a broad prediction about where the storm will go and how strong it will get. Then each day, sometimes several times a day, they change their prediction to adjust for their inaccuracies. As a storm gets closer to land they narrow their prediction. When they storm actually hits land, they make one last prediction and yes yes yes they hit it right on the head and got it right. I for one can see right through this smoke screen.

Just last week they predicted that Hanna would brush by Dominica and head up along Florida and then hit land somewhere between Brunswick and Savannah. Then much to their surprise, it stalled around Dominica and now it is heading towards North Carolina. They have made this new prediction this morning and they are sticking with it until she decides to do something differently. I tried to go back and look at their original prediction but they have conveniently erased it because it was WRONG.

Many years ago, they predicted that Hugo would hit around Brunswick but it instead turned toward Charleston. It is actually a good thing for me that it did because I was living in Georgia at the time and planned on riding it out in our Mobile Home. For those that forgot, Hugo wasn't that strong the day before it hit Charleston. Last week, they were predicting that Ike would go into the Gulf and now they are predicting it will go up the east coast of Florida similar to Hanna.

My point is this. The Weather Channel people are just making educated guesses based on historic weather patterns. No one can predict what will actually happen to one of these storms so be ready. Ike looks like a bad one. If you live on the coast have your things ready to leave if you have to. If Ike comes, I will go. I didn't get a chance to finish my video last night so I will try again tonight.

Have a great day,


Lori said...

I talked to my dad yesterday. He lives in Texas but my step-mom lives in Charleston SC. He was telling me about the Hurricane heading your way. Without having outside tv I really can't seem to keep up with what is going on around the world.

I am praying for you folks.


Lori said...

I meant to say is from S.C. Her mom and brother still live their.

Janice Thomson said...

I agree Greg. No point in taking chances. These things wobble quite often it seems.

beachgirl said...

Thank you Greg for the birthday wishes.
I live in South Florida. So it looks like we are under the gun again. In the 5 day out cone of course. But you are right about the predictions. I think it's a conspiracy to sell more batteries and water and canned food.
It was windy on the beach today. A little overcast, but an overcast and windy day on the beach is still the best.
Have an awesome evening.

somebody said...